#CA17: New Poll Shows Honda With Big Primary Lead

SurveyUSA is out with a new poll showing progressive incumbent Mike Honda with a 19-point lead over his nearest challenger in CA-17.

In any normal primary, that would be enough to outright win the Democratic nod — but not in California, where they have the ridiculous “top-two” primary system that pits the top-two vote-getters, regardless of party, against each other in the general election. Even though it sometimes ends in disaster, completely ignoring what voters want.

Moderate Democrat Ro Khanna has been running a very good race, positioning himself as a centrist, hoping to clean up with Republican votes come November — capitalizing on conservative distain of a progressive like Representative Honda. Here’s how the new primary polling breaks down:

CA17SurveyUSAPollMay2014

With the primary now less than one week away, it’s virtually statistically impossible for the match-up this November to be anything but Honda v. Khanna. Of the 24% undecided vote, only four percent of whom identify as Republican — meaning even if all of that four percent went to Ms. Singh, she’d still only be a little more than half way to where Mr. Khanna currently stands.

If there was only one Republican in the primary, second place would start looking a lot more competitive. But with multiple Republicans running, the vote gets split up, and Khanna moves ahead to the general. Khanna has been accused of recruiting Republicans into the race.

Representative Honda should clearly feel good about his current 19-point lead, as the primary is all but over. However, the general election will get much more competitive as it’s hard to see how the 18% of voters currently supporting Republicans or registered Republican don’t vote Khanna over Honda if they choose to pull the lever for one in November.